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Latest long term weather forecasts

Latest long term weather forecasts-rural-australia-1

The 2015 El Niño event is near its peak, with outlooks suggesting the event is likely to decline from early 2016. El Niño's influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in past events depending on how quickly the event breaks down. Historically summer sees lower rainfall across northern Queensland during El Niño. Conversely, inland WA often sees above-average rainfall at this time of year.

The combination of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a strong El Niño contributed to a drier than average September and October. Despite rain during November, Australia is not well buffered with moisture leading into the warmer months. The warm waters across the Indian Ocean may ease the outlook back towards an above-average rainfall outlook.

Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.

Tuesday September 1st 2015Hugh